As I write this, the start of the MotoGP season is almost exactly one month away, and that is surely going to be the longest month ever! When the season ends, we can bask in the glory of what has just been, and that sustains us through the Christmas period. Come January, we are all too busy licking the financial wounds from the holidays to worry about anything else. But February? Well, February is murder!
At least we in SA have the sunshine. Imagine being in the Northern hemisphere, suffering through the cold, grey, short days with sod all to distract you from it!
Even though it has not been televised, at least the season is underway, with the first test, or shakedown, taking place in Sepang as I type. There really is nothing much to glean from this test, with no factory riders taking part, apart from the Yamaha duo of Fabio Quartararo and Alex Rins, the rest being satellite teams and official test riders for the factory teams.
Given that this season will be the last under the current engine and aero rules, it is unlikely that there will be many differences between the 2025 and 2026 bikes lining up on the grids, so the pre-season testing is going to be less crucial than in other years. The main interest is going to be the performances of the rookies in the field: Diego Moreira, fresh from Moto2 and Toprak Razgatlioglu, fresh from World Superbikes.
No, the real interest at this stage of the year concerns who will be riding for which team in 2027. All but three of the riders on the grid are out of contract at the end of 2026, the three being Johann Zarco and Diogo Moreira at LCR Honda and Razgatlioglu at Pramac Yamaha.
Marc Marquez stated that some of the key seats would be decided before racing even got underway at the end of February, and it seems that he might not be far wrong.
Marquez himself is almost certain to extend his Ducati contract by another two years, taking him to the end of 2028. The main question is, who will be his teammate? You would think that it would take more than one bad season – and that, don’t forget, coming after two titles and a runner-up spot over the previous three years – to give Ducati the ammunition to ditch Pecco Bagnaia, but it seems as if his position might not be all that secure.
Pedro Acosta is not shy in coming forward when talking about the lack of potential of the KTM to give him a winning machine, and it is no secret that he is on Ducati’s radar. What a pairing that would be over two seasons; the legend, coming to the end of his career but by no means on the slippery downhill slope just yet, and the Next-Big-Thing, on what he hopes will still be the best bike.
Of course, there is no telling whether Ducati will be the dominant force heading into sweeping new rules, as it has been in recent seasons. And this is the conundrum facing every top rider jockeying for seats at the top table. Acosta might sign for Ducati for 2027 before the 2026 season even starts, only to find the KTM capable of winning races and challenging for championships in 2026. By then, of course, he’s committed to Ducati for 2027, only to find that the 2027 850 cc Ducati GP27 is a dog, and it’s another manufacturer that has got its sums right.
Fabio Quartararo is another rider who is fed up with his team’s lack of progress and, if the rumours are to be believed, he has already penned a deal to leave Yamaha and head to the factory Honda team in 2027. Mind you, Yamaha is well on the way to developing its new V4 engine, so Quartararo could be another rider who may well rue his hasty decision to jump ship, especially as he has not yet ridden the V4 M1. He would surely feel a right chump if, like Acosta, he starts winning in 2026, only to leave the team for 2027.
If Quartararo does head to Honda, there is a possibility that Jorge Martin could fill the Yamaha seat, the route to Honda being effectively closed off. Personally, I’d love to see what a fully fit Martin could do on the Aprilia, as I’m pretty certain he’s as good as Marco Bezzecchi and look at what he achieved on the RS-GP Aprilia last year. But it seems as if Martin is determined to leave Aprilia when his contract finishes at the end of 2026; perhaps the relationship has never fully healed after Martin’s hissy fit at the beginning of 2025, when he tried to get out of his contract early.
If Acosta does head to Ducati, what then for Bagnaia? He could head to his mentor Valentino Rossi’s VR46 team, which has a single current-spec Ducati to run. That, of course, would mean that either Fabio DiGiannantonio or Franco Morbidelli would have to make way, and it’s hard to say who would get the nod.
Fermin Aldeguer had a brilliant 2025, with a maiden victory in Indonesia on a year-old Ducati GP24. After two years on a year-old machine, he would obviously like to be promoted to a current-spec bike, and a move to the factory team alongside Marc Marquez isn’t out of the question for 2027, but that all depends on Acosta, if the rumours are to be believed.
Maverick Viñales’ work on the KTM RC-16 possibly had a lot to do with Acosta’s surge in form in the second half of 2025, even as his own form slumped due to injury. He might be getting on a bit (31 this month) and has a bit of an erratic reputation, but his experience with four MotoGP teams – KTM, Suzuki, Yamaha and Aprilia – makes him a valuable asset. If Bastiannini and Binder continue to struggle while Viñales makes the bike work, then guess who’s going to get the nod for the factory KTM in 2027?
Binder scored a huge goal when he signed a multi-year deal for KTM, but that is coming to an end at the end of this season and, as much as it pains me to say it, from the outside, he hasn’t done nearly enough to justify the factory seat. Mind you, if paddock gossip is to be believed, he spent much of 2025 testing new parts on race weekends, in which case the powers-that-be behind the scenes know exactly what he is capable of, even while the results were nothing to shout about. He certainly deserves to be on the grid, but maybe it’s time to face up to the fact that KTM isn’t the place to be. Again, that might all change this year or next, but, without a crystal ball, it’s all guesswork.
Any move he does make is likely to be to a satellite team, which, as was proven in no uncertain terms in 2025, is no bad thing, but he’ll have to get a move on, as there are plenty of young pretenders snapping at MotoGP’s heels, deserving a chance.
If most of the big questions are answered before a wheel is turned in anger, then that will only leave us all the less distracted when the racing does resume, as well as providing an interesting subtext to the season. Who will have made the right decision: Acosta, Quartararo, or Martin at the moment, but every rider in the long run? As long as the on-track action matches the off-track intrigue, then we’re in for a cracking season.
